600k users by year end is simply impossible in my view. It would mean a run rate of 50k per mth added over the back 6 months of the year. if that is achieved then they will have seen the last five 6 monthly blocks deliver 30k, 42k, 52k, 80k and then 300k? That would be called exponential and graph accordingly. Now I get that we just did 50k in two months... but to think that suddenly doubles and becomes the norm for the back half is way way too optimistic unless they know something I don't. If we did achieve that, then the valuation of 2oc next year is massively under weight... and the forecast of 1m users would not make sense. It would assume we go backwards from 300k users added in the back half this year to only adding 200k users each of the following two 6 monthly blocks. Illogical. It also assumes our RPU drops from a steady 1.245 for years to suddenly be $1.08. That's a big shift and would mean a change of user acquisition/channel strategy. I highly doubt we could have the total RPU drop that much.
Pls correct me if I have this wrong... otherwise I reckon if we get to 400k users by years end we can do 750k-800k next year. That for be an arr of 12m and would see profit maybe of $4m-$5m. For me, with growth like this and such a scalable, low cost growth model (with 80% margins) we could be trading as a $200m-250m company on a very nice multiple. That's 50c per share fully diluted.
DSE Price at posting:
10.5¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
