Some great posts here, discussions like these really bring value to Hotcopper.
From my understanding, Lithium brine is the area to be in.
Brine extraction is lot cheaper than rock crushing, not to mention the imminent processing technology that may significantly cut costs. There is value in a handful of hard rock company's, but they aren't my cup of tea.
When deciding on which junior Lithium brine stock to hold, it was a tough choice between AGY & RLC.
Now producing is fantastic, and it’s the proven way of creating massive companies, but when purchasing a junior stock, it is not the most significant factor.
I ended up going with RLC as I see it providing the greatest % gains. A brief explanation below.
Current Market Cap of AGY is about 60mil. Assuming they don’t raise any more money, and don’t increase their shares on issue, (highly improbable) for me to double my cash they will need to be valued at around 120million. This may eventually happen, but with the current variables and dilution risk it is still a speculative investment, with a high chance of short term downturn given the great run it has already had this year.
AGY has not finalized drilling, has no JORC, no DFS (Defined Feasibility Study).
I put it as a good buy at <5c. If it drifts there I will hopefully have the funds to jump on board, and wait for it to hit those lofty Market Cap values that will let me walk away with a bag or two.
Where do you expect AGY’s market cap to be by 2018
@Onspeed @timmy t?
Current Market Cap of RLC is 4.3m.
SP is 2.5c, but is gapped between 2c - 2.4c.
It has been fairly evaluated by a research company at 4.5c.
I see it as a great buy at 3c and below, and a good buy below 4.5c.
On a side note, the report has some great general lithium observations, check it out at:
http://www.reedylagoon.com.au/downloads/ASX_17-03-16_STRIPPED_RCR only.pdf
It has roughly 200k cash, raised without a broker at 3c, a massive premium to the SP at the time, and the 500k raised from it shows the loyalty of the current tight knit shareholders. From my conversations with its managing director, Geof Fethers, it is very hopeful of becoming a producer. It will be raising more funds, with management hoping for a 6c raise to fund drilling. This is likely to be put through a broker, giving it a higher chance of filling up.
RLC has shown incredible MT surveys, with some results being so good the machine couldn’t properly process its figures. These also happen to be better than RLC’s neighbor, CAD.
Now from a value perspective, once RLC secures its funding for drilling and results are released, it should be in a similar position to where AGY was last quarter, but have a much lower market cap, at around 10m. At this point, it could easily have a run similar to AGY.
RLC with a 60m market cap will mean anybody buying in now will be be up over 600% (if we value it at a 10m market cap).
As icing on the cake it is also in Nevada which is right next door to Tesla’s Gigafactory.
Additionally, the stocks on HC that have thousands of posters, and frequent the Most Discussed, may have some great % gain days, and they also seem to have half the world backing them with hundreds of experts commenting on how great they are. But I’d argue the unknown stocks, ones where the hordes and day traders haven’t caught on, are where serious value can be found, RLC being a prime example.
Cheers.
