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Excellent summary mate.

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avagadro

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20/08/18

09:56

Post #: 35029631
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Originally posted by springinhetveld ↑

There are about 14 (pure) lithium stocks, i.e., lithium companies that have made it. These are:

ALB FMC SQM: Formerly called "the big 3"
ORE GXY MIN and MIN/NMT/Ganfeng: The producers
TAW AJM PLS: The new producers
LIX LAC NMX KDR: The funded future producers (LIX was TO by NextView)

For simplicity I am counting MIN/NMT/Ganfeng as one entity (Mt. Marion Lithium mine). In addition there are some small ones (both old and new) which I have ignored. They are either not producing for batteries and/or not pure lithium plays.

These 14 are most likely not sufficient to supply enough lithium in the future although most of them are planning significant production increases. But as we have seen over the last decade from the "big 3" the planned production increases have failed to materialize. So some more producers will be needed. But it seems that the financing will be the "breaking" point. BCN recently experienced this and the SP has suffered tremendously (from 85 to 50p).

The majority of my money has been and is on AJM PLS LAC and NMX.
At the current prices looking to get some KDR and GXY as well.
Missed KDR last year as it went up too quickly after winning the court case and my buy order was to low.
I did have GXY but lost them due to my stop loss getting hit on the way up at a short dip (stupid me, in both cases).

At the current price levels of the lithium stocks in general guessing the next ones to get financed correctly may be very profitable, but guessing it wrongly will be very costly (see BCN).

The ones I believe in are and are invested in:
AVZ The largest resource on the planet. In it since 2.2c so no reason to sell now (should have sold above the 30c and gottent back in now). Main issue with this one is that it is in the DRC and the transport is challenging and potentially costly.
BGS An other "super" lithium resource. Not quite the size of AVZ but large enough. Like AVZ it main disadvantage is its location as it is Mali.
CXO Basically funded by the Chinese but only if they find enough lithium. And this has turned out to be much more challenging then anticipated. But seems they have what is needed. But is it enough to also make it a really good business.... There should be enough on their lands though but it has taken a lot of time and a couple of set-backs with duds at Zola and Springwood.
SYA Run by managers also involved in ORE and AJM. I.e. management knows how to bring a resource to mine. Main issue is the resource so far is rather small. As upside they have some lands in the evolving Wits 2.0 gold story in the Pilbara which may lead to a very unexpected SP increase.
LPD The good old Platypus. More a technology play then a lithium play. But since they are linked with GXY and starting a plant in Quebec it is looking very very promising!

Others I believe have some potential but I am not (yet) invested in:
AGY Have not followed this one very closely but believe they are well advanced with a clear path to financing. So not too risky
PSC Believe they are funded as well. But for some reason the SP has not (yet) taken off. Being in Zimbabwe may be the issue as well as going beyond simple hard-rock mining. They are going for an LiCO3 and/or LiOH converter as well making it rather risky.
4CE Neighbor of AVZ but much earlier play. If they find any lithium like AVZ did and AVZ makes it they will make it as well. Risky play but at the current price worth a (small) bet.

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Excellent summary mate.
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