The way I see it, even if SQM decides to expand up to the ~200k...

The way I see it, even if SQM decides to expand up to the ~200k LCE allowed, it will take years. They wouldn't have that capacity established until the middle of the next decade, at which time most analysts project the yearly LCE demand to be 700-1000K LCE; well above expected supply even with 200k from SQM.

The projected demand is almost guaranteed because of the commitment countries and automakers have made to going EV. The timeline here sums it up: https://www.teslarati.com/automakers-come-acceptance-ev-revolution-begun/

Another industry expert is Gerrit Fuelling, who is former president of Rockwood lithium Asia (now Albermarle). He has had several short articles commenting on the recent SQM and MS news. https://www.linkedin.com/in/gerrit-fuelling-a73a4555/detail/recent-activity/posts/

Some other comments on MS's report: https://investingnews.com/daily/res.../will-lithium-prices-fall-2025/?mqsc=E3938879