Haplo, good read. Thanks for the link.
My thoughts – when discussing about demand and supplysituation, general market would look at demand (in EV car sales) and supply (inlithium concentrate). However, for miners like AMAL, looking at the growing EVcar sales (demand) may not be the most direct (short-term) indicator/match forour lithium concentrate (supply), though the "ultimate" EV car salesdoes make sense for overall perspective.
There's (obviously) a supply chain of multiple players andtheir respective Demand/Supply.
1. EV Car Manufacturer - Demand (EV car sales) and Supply(Battery and other car components)
2. Battery Maker - Demand (Battery) and Supply (LithiumCarbonate/Hydroxide and other chemicals like Cobalt/Nickel/etc)
3. Lithium Converter - Demand (LithiumCarbonate/Hydroxide) and Supply (Lithium Concentrate)
For AMAL, we need to look more closely into (3). In 2018,lithium concentrate supply (hardrock) has increased from 1 producer (GB) to 4 producers(GB, AMAL, AJM, PLS) and we can expect more supply in 2019/2020 will comeonline when the above 4 producers are all running at full+expanded capacitywith potentially a few more new supply (SYA, CXO etc). In addition, with the lithiumconverters not ramping up well, the short-term (2019/2020) bottleneck will bethe conversion capacity.
No doubt that long term EV car sales demand will outpacethe supply of battery & raw materials, where is the tipping point (2021 asBenchmark had mentioned)? But, in the short-term (2019/2020), does it look likethere might be some slight (not severe) oversupply situation for lithiumconcentrate miners/producers? And that’s when the quality (spodumeneconcentrate grade and the level of deleterious elements) of the output will startto matter & affect the prices, in my opinion. Given our newly foundedreputation for excellent product quality, I am expecting AMAL to shine in achallenging market condition in 2019/2020.
Anyone has any idea how we can monitor the conversioncapacity?
