Originally posted by Stockcount
Yes DV, detail is thin.
Generally speaking optimism has been thin before now and the cash is getting thin. But on the balance of things, it is really better to leave the hope and the glory out there than too many details that essentially will amount to nothing, because they cannot guarantee any sort of numbers around units sold and price per unit etc unless it has actually happened.
When the financing is done, they will obviously tell us ! You simply are not going to get anything until the plan is set. You didn't expect a list of options for us to discuss on hotcopper did you ? I know you didn't.
All the spec stocks have to operate this way. Rules of the game. A generous and realistic hint at potential revenue can land a company in extremely hot water if it doesn't come off.
See what happened to Elon Musk when he tweeted he was going to take Tesla private. 'Funding secured'. He was sued for 100 million bucks and lost his job ! After it didn't happen of course.
Spec stocks get away with more but there are clear rules around disclosure as you know. Market share and price per litre sold and number of litres anticipated is probably too close to the line.
Anyway I don't think they know yet because it is really going to be the negotiations that set these numbers. Lets hope they cut a good deal. Playing it cool is the first step in these matters and I think they are doing that.
Anyway, this company is still the classic definition of a spec. With this SP, this MC and these cash flow problems. We are gliding along gracefully on thin ice... thin cash, thin details...
If they can paint a nice picture, keep the hopes up, avoid spilling the gruesome 'details' and instead encourage thoughts around an upcoming impending promising deal, then they are doing a good job !
It is our job to decide whether we believe them. Do you ?
No fund in the land will take a risk on a company like this.
Only the speculators like us. Speculators by nature like the risk v reward. Stupid maybe. Brilliant maybe. Based entirely on whether we win or not.
A speculator is a person generally who is unaware of the risk, according to the non-speculator. A speculator is in fact pretty close to being a gambler. And gambling is more about the mood altering high, than actual money.
The non-speculator is an investor. Treats all this like a savings target. Where they expect and track a 10% return each year times x years. The magic of compound interest. Boring.
Question for you : why would a non-speculator be interested in a spec company ? Who is the person who buys a house next to an airport and then complains about the airport. Who is that person ?
So this is a spec company living off the dreams of gamblers/speculators. 1 in a hundred succeed. or 99 out of a hundred fail.
I am wondering if you share those views ?
NB: Remember, potential revenue figures are a no-no. Revenue potential must be left to your imagination....but keep the dream alive...
Just for record, I seriously want this dream to come true.
Scoffing at a suggestion of potential revenue is one thing, but I've seen many listed companies talk in terms of future revenue and market share. It's how you make your statements. Which should indeed be qualified. Such companies who do this are still listed and doing far better than ADO.
Secondly Elon Musk can expect very close scrutiny from regulators just arising from the size of the company. A lot goes on in the ASX in small caps and micro caps that isn't exactly kosher. ASIC has very limited resources and tends to focus on companies that it can use as an example. These tend to be large caps.
I'd suggest that one reason that ADO hasn't been brought under the microscope from litigation in any form, could be that remaining shareholders don't want to kill off the remaining chances of the company finally (despite arguably incompetence at best), actually succeeding. Certainly I've given the entire situation plenty of thought and the one reliable element has been Joe Maeji and the science.
Aware of their past, the possibility that management is overcompensating with coyness verging on obscurity should at least be considered.
Finally, it's well established that there has been a remarkable intolerance in discussion in here for a variety of views. It's been considered necessary to attack individuals on a personal level. I find this confounding and fascinating at the same time.
Aware that it's not always possible to explore all possibilities exhaustively for a range of reasons I do find that asking questions is at least one possibility. I'm sure that you aren't suggesting that because this is a speculative stock, a variety of possibilities should be entirely closed from discussion. DYOR is always at the background, after all. That includes at least thinking about the least palatable of considerations.
