Not hindsight, just a shift in bias and perhaps allowing...

Not hindsight, just a shift in bias and perhaps allowing yourself to listen to others.

When you adopt the high water mark of every single input you leave analysis so skewed to the upside it's meaningless.

Conservative inputs; 10% debt not 1% German loans, 30% tax on already inflated profit, not begrudgingly 10% and certainly not short run average commodity prices in your model... at least you'll have a chance of things going your way.

Find something that stacks up under an adverse scenario and you won't need need
hindsight.