That's precisely why it's arbitrary. The financial profile of the Penor project was clouded by the introduction of the second HoA, particularly because its terms are less clear (we only know it provides near-term cash generation potential). So you're pretty much shooting in the dark regarding capital costs. Whether it is government or not is irrelevant.
But if you're a back of the envelope kind of guy, choose yourself an arbitrary
NPAT margin, work in your capital cost estimate, and work back from your shares outstanding + option dilution.
As I said, IMO the market is more concerned about contract progression than the numbers. Might as well wait for the next announcement to see what we're really holding, and run the numbers then.
