LIFX Acquisition - A few thoughts, page-62

That's a fair point IMO. C/F positive in CY19Q4 means that we need to have sufficient Ohm's installed and earning by end Q3. We don't know exactly what that needs to be in terms of units generating income, but in terms of quarterly revenue it is likely to need to be between A$3.0 - $4.0m  - depending on the extent and sustainability of cost cutting measures between now and then. Adjusting for Thor, and assuming no other revenues from existing lines of business, this means Ohm needs to generate at a minimum about $2.6m in CY19Q4 revenues.  We don't know what current (i.e. CY18Q4) revenues from Ohm are, but the most generous estimate would be around A$560k for the quarter. That's a massive growth rate over the next few quarters!!  And in the face of acceptance that Digicel won't contribute as per original forecasts and guidance.  And in the face of guidance that IM channel will not show material revenues till Q3.

So, IMO, it is only rational to have healthy and constructive skepticism on the maintenance of year end cash flow positive from existing lines of business. While DM has no obligation to substantiate (with details) the source of his confidence, he cannot be surprised if the market treats words of reassurance, in the absence of substantiation, as a little hollow for now. IMO. Which leaves me to believe (or is it hope) that as a rational and obviously intelligent man, he is not commenting as he can not comment, on what is/are a whale or two that is/are expected to imminently convert (allowing time to install and get on-line).  Other than a whale or two, I see no way that the target can be achieved.

All that said, I am not really that hung up about the performance to date of the business on an operational level.  It is the reality of doing business, that there are swings, roundabouts and dips and dead-ends.  And successful businesses, navigate these. BUD has shown enough signs to me that it can and will navigate these well on an operational level.  My concern is in the track record that is being built up with over promising and under delivering.  And the associated impact on credibility of communications.

I may of course be totally wrong.  All IMO and DYOR.  GLTA.