VBA 0.00% 35.5¢ virgin blue holdings limited

let's recap...

  1. 67 Posts.
    Since I bought my VBA's when Borgetti was appointed, and make no mistake I bought after and because he was appointed (great pedigree),then what has happened...(since I posted last on Top stocks).

    NB: No, I do not work for the airline - just an investor in a company with a very bright immediate and long term future.

    Game Change Plan commenced...
    New Livery/Uniforms and Business Class intro. New aircraft and interiors.
    a) Stable workforce and industrial relations are good for foreseeable.
    b) $750m cash in the bank
    c) Major 'Game Change' restructure by new CEO, bringing the airline into the future.
    d) A new business class - which normally generates 50 to 65% of mainline airline profits - and they were very profitable beforehand (Excepting a lean year or two. You don't build up a 100 fleet and have 750 in the bank if you're losing money - logical eh - the maths don't lie!).
    e) Modern fleet. Heaps of new 737 800's coming on line.
    f) New codeshare agreements with Etihad to Europe and Delta in the US and Air NZ across the ditch, and now Singapore - a heavy hitter in asia.
    g) New business class facilities at major airports to lure big earning, bigger spending clients and govt business travellers.
    h) A new fleet of ATR 72's coming on line for regional work - a very economical aeroplane (uses 50% less fuel than the Embraer 170 it replaces).
    i) The closure of loss making routes (ie South Africa - internal NZ). The turn around of the loss making international stuff to good profits already.
    j) The CEO is a businessman who will appreciate the effect a dividend can have on a stock value, unlike his predecessor who was dividend averse.
    k) Finally, they already hold an excellent, 30%+ market share of the domestic market, which will only increase. They have a world known brand name, and have now consolidated into a single brand for better recognition. With 100 aeroplanes soon, this is a serious quality business. Forget about Qantas industrial woes they are unimportant to the long term - of both airlines.
    The share price is about 38 odd cents. Is there a more undervalued listed company in the world today? I think not! (I reiterate this remark).
    l) Additional revenues are already starting to flow as pax of all classes enter OZ from overseas partner airlines, and now book and fly with their code sharing partner in Oz (pax's from Etihad, Singers, Air NZ and Delta - who would have otherwise been dispersed btwn all Oz and asian carriers). Proved this myself while on a Cairns/Bris-Vegas flight and watched Code Share pax's from other carriers given their included meals (gratis) as per their own carriers standards - these pax numbers are going to be very substantial. Also note that H2O and Soft drinks will be free on all classes from next year, a sign of the mainlining of a once budget airline.
    m) Crucially, the upgrade of Velocity and massive increase in membership (remember Qantas Freq Flyer program has become the cash cow that saved the red ink for Q). If Virgin can gear the Velocity program similarly, then expect large increase on the bottom line from next year on, and note the membership has already passed the break-even point. Get Coles on board here and watch out!

    Now for all that, the share is around 40c...Massively undervalued. My prediction (IMHO) 60c before year end. $1 by February/March next year and issue price parity ($2.25) a year later, that would still only value the company at just under $5b... and by then they will have that value in aeroplanes alone. This stock is rumbling like a volcano. Watch this space!!!

 
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