I don't have a problem with your valuation comparison of NDO's remaining Galoc developed reserves (2.3mmbbls), and the WL undeveloped reserves (3.2mmbbls) with what OEL are getting for their remaining reserves at Galoc.
However, your appraisal has failed to take into account the four discoveries in the SC54A contract area, vis...Nido 1x1, Yakal, Tindalo, and Signal Head, let alone the still producing (marginal) Matinloc and Nido fields.
Actually, there are two other discoveries in the SC54A area making a total of six, but the other two are little mentioned, so for posterity I'll mention them here...Nido-1, and North Nido-1.
The value of these assets can obviously be viewed a number of different ways depending on your opinion, and we've seen that range from NDO's mgmt trying to sell them off recently for US$3M (DOE quashed), which also included the Matinloc and Nido producing fields along with it by the way....to Viking in 2012 estimating 5-6mmbbls recoverable in just Nido 1x1, Yakal, and Tindalo alone, and wanting to fast track development.
That's another let's say 5mmbbls of undeveloped reserves, and at your price of US$9/bbl, that equates to another US$ 45M value.
That's the string of pearls, and undoubtedly there's still a lot more oil housed in those pinnacles....love to open up Lawaan!
I'm hoping that the remaining staunch holders can continue to "hold tight" their shares, as the spud of Gobi is not too far away now and won't take all that long to drill. We'll probably need two more two week extensions (first should be this week) to the offer from BCP, but I don't see that as a problem if nobody sells to them.
If Gobi comes in, and it's got the best chance of the three Indo wells, there is potential there to add a further 3.6mmbbls of undeveloped reserves to NDO's register.
Again, on your figures of US$9/bbl, that would equate to another US$32.4M in value.
BCP have got some thinking to do...pretty sure they didn't think it would be drawn out this far after share price suppression for so long, although the average time taken to conclude successful off-mkt takeovers in Aust runs at three months...that should take us well into November, and it seems pretty illogical that they could wrap up the deal with the drill bit about to penetrate the target zone at Gobi...imo.
NDO Price at posting:
5.4¢ Sentiment: Hold Disclosure: Held
