Sean
They have said all along that the reserve statement was due by the end of the quarter. That means this week, or Monday pre-market at the latest. I am working on that time line unless we get a formal announcement suggesting otherwise.
It is hard to gauge how big the 2P will be, as it is relatively new ground for this style of unconventional play. It may be instructive to look back at Carbon's old statements as this may give a rough guide. Or even Linc, dare I say that word!!!!
By working off the 2,900 ish PJ's of resource, I am looking at an ultimate 2P reserve in the range of 1,600 to 1,800 PJ after backing out the technical and commercial stuff. Not all of this will be booked now, and it is unclear how big the envelope outside of the cavity will be. If they get half of that now, it would be a great result, in my eyes. in some form, it will be more important how big the 3P number is, as this can be achieved via further cavity development.
I am also keen to see if their are any capex and opex estimates provided with the PRMS report, and released. I have modeled this project, but I am still uncertain about these key elements which would hugely impact on commerciality and economic return.
Hope this helps
AL
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