After digging up some old news about Carbon energy(CNX), there was some interesting finds.
The transformation of Carbon Energy to a become a major gas supplier in Queensland has stepped up, as it notches the fifth largest reserves of Proved and Probable (2P) gas in Queensland. Carbon Energy is in discussions with potential industrial off-take partners.
At the time when CNX upgraded its reserve to +1000PJ. The SP went ballistic from 2.3c to almost 10c.'It didnt spike up to 10c in one day, but it gradually increases over the week.
"Excitement has been high with shares in the company tripling from $0.023 on 19 September prior to the Reserves update being made the following Monday to the current price of $0.061" Proactive investors
This gives a good indication of what a good reserves upgrade can affect the SP significantly.
The upgrade happened in September 2014, however when Linc energy caused environmental concerns and Labor won the election in 2015, the SP fell to 2c again. This gave CNX a hard time getting that commercial approval and uncertainty were growing.
Overall, i think LCK is different because there is no water body nearby that it could potentially harm. And management have learned what to do and not do do in order to prevent history from repeating itself. Both LNC and CNX operated in QLD were never able to achieve commercial level. LCK might be the first one to do so and considering the SA government seems to support this project more than QLD is an upside too.
