Bob Kamandanu on Indonesias Peak Coal Production, Energy Security and Exports to India Bob Kamandanu, the chairman of Indonesian Coal Producers Association (APBI), said the country has an estimated 50 to 70 years of coal reserves.
Therefore, he has urged the government to create a precise map of the reserves and develop a plan that would enable Indonesia to meet its growing demand for power while continuing to be a major coal exporter.
Bob recently sat down with the Jakarta Globe to talk about energy security, the rising demand for electricity and the next boom in coal on Sumatra island.
Can we reduce the aggressive exploitation of coal, one of the dirtiest sources of energy available?
Yes, we can, but coal is still the cheapest resource for power generation. We are aware that coal is the dirtiest but can we get cheaper and cleaner resources now? I dont think so.
What about new technology such as coal liquefaction?
Its good but its highly expensive. Investors need at least $10 billion and billions of tons of coal within a certain number of years to generate an adequate return.
When can we expect peaks in national coal production and consumption?
Currently, our coal consumption is about 40 million to 50 million tons per year. I think peak consumption will likely be around 150 million tons.
This year we may produce up to 270 million tons, with expected national coal consumption of about 50 million.
I see peak production at about 300 million to 325 million, maybe up to 350 million tons a year. That means we could live with our coal for at least 50 to 70 years.
What is the biggest problem coal producers are facing?
We dont have a clear map of the countrys coal reserves. It would be great if the government could provide comprehensive data regarding the coal reserves and mineable coal. Where is the coal? Whats the quality? If we have the map then we can measure when can we increase our electrification rate, how much coal we need what the calorie rate is.
What does the association want from the government over the next two or three years?
The mapping is the most important thing we need. Second, if we want to boost the countrys revenue the government should not limit the volume of coal production. Its great that the government has launched the domestic market obligation but the pricing must be done according to an international index price.
If the government sets its own price then nobody wants to sell their coal to the countrys power generators. The payment by local players is also a problem because the coal producers only get paid about 60 to 90 days after they deliver the coal.
What do you think about India and China aggressively seeking Indonesias coal? Will it benefit us or hurt our energy security?
Its good for us because 60 percent of every dollar from coal sold outside the country goes to the government. The energy security should be ensured through the creation of the mapping. Do we want all coal-fired power plants or a combination of geothermal, coal, nuclear and gas? If we get the mapping finished we could focus on what coal we must allocate for domestic use and what we could export.
Meanwhile, India and China are two different animals. India is aggressive, while China is becoming more selective. China is sucking up all the mineral resources it can in order to maintain its economic growth.
India really needs our coal because it needs to chase Chinas economic growth. So, Indias appetite is actually bigger than Chinas.
India has many new power plants it expects to come onstream in the next several years and it needs a huge amount of coal. I just recently met several Indian buyers and they are keen to take everything we have.
So the big investment in coal will continue this year?
Yes, despite many problems concerning regulations many investors are still coming to Indonesia. They want to collaborate with local players because if they are doing it by themselves they will be manipulated.
Local players also need to tackle social issues and legal uncertainties.
However, they will find it hard to find a big coal concession because it has already been taken by Indonesias big players. Can they find any other big concession now? I dont think so.
Where is the next coal boom? Kalimantan, Sumatra or Papua?
I think Sumatra if the railway infrastructure is constructed. Yes, Papua has it, too, but to tap the island that has so many minerals is not ideal. It has its own minerals like gold and copper. We should not take coal from Papua.OAKLANDS
CWK Price at posting:
31.3¢ Sentiment: Hold Disclosure: Held
