The main reason I am staying out is it clear that some people, particularly patent attorneys, have better access to price sensitive information. We are only going to know of major issues after all the patent attorneys have sold.
ePCT national phase is major issue and I doubt the market has factored in impact of ePCT national phase. In the 2014 prospectus ePCT as well as trans tasman single market were mentioned as possible risks but with no certainty regarding if and when it would happen. Now in 2016 the trans tasman common market looks to be a certainty and the published minutes of WIPO for May 26 to 29 2015 (search PCT/WG/8/26) suggest a pilot program commenced in late 2015.
The earlier posted analysis showed that Sprusons made about 1/3 of its profit from national phase filings in 2014. The patent attorney I spoke to said that the fall in their own firm profits would be closer to 40%. There was a fall of $3 in the share price when the IPH profit was towards the lower end of the expected range. The share price listed around $3. How big will the fall be when profits are below those at listing?
Earth93, the information is available on the internet though I did talk to a patent attorney for some guidance. The recent loss of a large client by Pizzeys comes from a search of the records of IPAustralia. You can view filed documents including a change of agent form filed on 9 March moving the work from Pizzeys to Phillips. I understand that larger attorney firms have automated watches which provide alerts.
Superweath, the most recent client loss was not factored into the Feb price crash. The 23 Feb ASX announcement referred to an earn out criteria not being met in relation to Callinans. There was no mention of any impairment or earnout issues for Pizzeys. This makes sense as the client was lost from Pizzeys in early March.
Another person suggested the failure of a large client of Callinans to come across was part of the reason for the crash in the February share price. If that is the reason we will see another large fall in the share price when IPH issues another ASX report which mentions earnout issues for Pizzeys.
I did not see any upside to the stock and a lot of downside risk.
IPH Price at posting:
$6.38 Sentiment: Sell Disclosure: Not Held
(20min delay)
