KTD chart, page-554

what about global debt? another 11 years of the Current bull market you say? this can only happen with more QE from all the central banks. with draghi retiring next year ECB chief, the contagion will start in Europe with a Deutsche bank or commerz bank collapsing. till now draghi has made no attempt to reduce the ECB balance sheet, instead continuing to buy bonds to keep the music going. he won't care after next year. the only saving grace for the US fed is they are now reducing their balance sheet by raising rates but they also need to raise rates before the next recession begins so they have wiggle room to bring them
back down again. kinda counter-intuitive cause raising rates starts helps starts a recession especially where headline unemployment is 3.7% vs underlying which is 12%, but that's the game the fed plays. even if raising rates helps create the next recession, raise them enough before it starts so you have room to play with. look at every cycle since the tech wreck, and the fed has been deliberately behind the curve.

again, I'm not negative on KTD as I'm a long term holder but just sharing my macro views