I thought that I would revisit the assumptions made last year before a series of management
negative announcement knocked the ass out of the share price.
-Since then the POG in AUD has lifted 8%
-the forecast for '15 FY reduced from 40K ozs to 30K-35K ozs
-short term AISC is up but longer term AISC similar.
-mining has not yet accessed the Splay Vein
-throughput running 75 ton a day short (-19%)
So looking forward from here, where does that leave us?
(a) we still have to assume that throughput will reach capacity soon (385 ton/day)
(b) that the Splay vein will be accessed soon to take average grade to 14/g/t (incl silver)
(c) that the POG will sit around $1560/oz AUD
(d) that the original AISC will be achieved when production stabilises.
If these assumptions are correct going forward then EPS should be close to 10c
and SP close to $1 given that the market always looks forward .
Given that our problem has been ramping up to full production
including accessing the Splay vein, then, IMO, all resources should now
be directed to that end. There's lots of time later for drilling/exploration
and we should be conserving cash until we hit the magic 385 ton/day
with at least 85 ton of that ex the Splay Vein.
Cheers
Moorookamick
(That's all IMO, of course and investors should always do their
own research before making any investment decision)
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