RDF 0.00% 90.0¢ redflex holdings limited

know when to fold em?, page-17

  1. 369 Posts.
    Hi Guys (and Gals),

    Thanks for the responses. On average negative / neutral for the short term and generally positive for the long term.

    I have a bit of time before I must sort out my Toxo strategy and selling some to fund conversion of others is definitely a possibility. This possibility diminishes as the time to conversion ebs away (31 Jan).

    Rab is right (thanks for the kind words) - I don't need to liquidate my entire RDF holding to raise $70K but the RDf is in my portfolio that is on a margin loan. RDF has a 40% loading. So to get the $70k cash without raising my margin loan ratio significantly, I would pretty much have to sell the lot.

    This raises the issue of interest payment on the loan and oportunity costs which I should factor in. If the HC people are avoiding this stock as it has little upside short term and I can expect to generate a profit elsewhere, then I really ought to bale out.

    Falling in love with this stock has effectively cost me 2 years of interest payments, opportunity costs and missed profits. I went in far too heavy with it ending up at about 25% of my portfolio at it's peak (when I could have sold for a 50% profit).

    To sumarise my lessons (not really learnt actually as I am making the same sorts of play with Tox):
    * Don't fall in love - I did
    * Don't be heavy - I am
    * Use stop losses - I don't

    I ought to reflect on this as Tox/Toxo moves up to 20%+ of my portfolio and I saw a recent retrace cost me a $100k drop in paper profits. Had I used a stop loss, I would have bought back in, efectively converting my options for free.

    When I decide, I will pass on what I did. If I sell and make my expected gains on TOX, I can definitely see me getting back in 6 months down he line.


    Regards,

    Keith.
 
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