king vol resource upgrade estimate, page-8

I have to check how I did that again. I must have stated EBIT as EBIDTA to get 24-30 mill NPAT.

Depreciation and amortisation should be about $25-30M. I assume this is less because they wrote down assets by $48.5M.

D&A was..

FY11 - 46.2
FY10 - 32.3

Last year I think EBIDTA was $49.2 mill. If they achieved the mid-range of guidance, $63M, then EBIT would be about $33-38M less tax = $24-26M.

This might be too optimistic. In FY10 they recorded a 3.7M net profit. Last year was 2.1M.

What's a likely scenario? EBIDTA +55, D&A -39, T&I, -5 = NPAT 11M

I guess that gives you room to move. You can cut 3 mill off earnings, up D&A by 3 mill and still end up with a NPAT of 6M. They would have to record at least 4-5M in NPAT to gain some credibility.