I believe a successful ramp up of Haile represents a great chance for a stock re-rate and also represents a risk if they continue to experience problems. However I am confident that if problems had continued into Dec that management would have informed shareholders - so the absence of news is good news! Haile simply adds to the low cost ounces already produced and is also better scale. Exploration is focusing on near mine exploration which holds upside potential at each of OGC’s operations. All of this is good news - the continued ban on new opencast mines in Philippines may become an issue if OGC finds a new copper gold porphyry deposit nearby (which is highly likely) however as such a find is not built into the current stock price, so it cannot be penalised if it does not happen. Either way if you run the numbers by NAV or by cash flow the stock is seriously under valued; NAV currently sits at just under $4 per share and a producer of this size should demand 1.3x NAV. The last time I ran my numbers the upside target was showing $6 per share with a downside risk of circa $3.50 per share if everything went wrong at Didipio!
So for me - buying into the stock now is a no brainer!
OGC Price at posting:
$3.38 Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held