Doing a bit of research/thinking and figured I'd share.
The thesis for a bullish Copper outlook has already been discussed here and, IMO, is extremely solid and structural. I also think that whilst general economic slowdowns/ recessions can dampen the strength/ timing of a Cu bull market, the supply and demand drivers are extremely sound.
This BHP write up from several months ago lays it out extremely well.
In an internal piece that I can't share from Sprott, they are bullish on the exploration thesis for the Kalahari Copper Belt due to the reasons that we have again talked about at length here.
Undoubtedly MOD represents one of the best and most advanced investment opportunities within the Kalahari Cu Belt (we can't invest in Cupric Canyon) within Botswana.
However, there are two other investments that people need to think about to gain exposure to other parts of the belt that MOD do not control.
My logic here is that:
(a) I think the Cu bull thesis is solid
(b) I think that the Kalahari Cu belt is going to deliver some major discoveries in the coming years
But, what would happen if:
A major Tier 1 Kamoa-Kakula analogue was found outside of MOD's tenements? I would be gutted to have got the investment thesis 95% right but to have missed out on the major prize.
Whilst I think MOD has the best prospects and already has a major project on its hands as per the map below:
There are parts of the belt that MOD don't control.
Kopore, also have significant ground to the South of MOD that has similar geology including the Calcrete layer that has previously masked mineralisation for previous explorers:
And now, via MTR's recent announcement, there is an opportunity to gain exposure to the North Eastern part of the belt via its deals with KML (a private UK listed company):
My solution to the conundrum of "what if a Kamoa Kakula is present in this belt but not on MOD ground" is that I simply have to have some exposure to all three publicly listed vehicles:
MOD
KMT
MTR
The weighting will be heavily in favour of MOD but a slice of the other two is required, IMO, and exploration success dependent, can be reweighted over time.
We already have clues that mineralisation spills over from Cupric Canyon's tenements into neighbouring tenements:
(a) MOD's A21 target is potentially an extension of Cupric Canyon's "Banana Zone"
(b) KML's Okavango project has the same structures running through the tenements that host Zone 5 and T3
(c) KMT have identified similar potential domes to MOD's T3 and T20 domes, named GWD1
(d) KMT have identified a second potential dome, GWD2, which lies along strike and proximate to MOD's T7 dome
I believe the market is asleep to this developing belt wide opportunity right as we're moving into the teeth of a supply and demand driven Cu bull market in the years ahead.
Cheers
John
MOD Price at posting:
0.0¢ Sentiment: None Disclosure: Held
