Chinese want magnetite from GBG/WA. They say they intend increasing steel production from 35 mill tpa to 50 tpa. How many tonnes iron ore to make 1 tonne steel ?
What is capacity of rail ex GBG to Oakajee ? Over-utilised ? Port congestion ?
ROY have 10 mtpa (expandable) rail capacity to Port Pirie. Under-utilised? No port congestion ?
ROY and GBG are "mates", hence chinese partner would know about ROY.
If u were chinese producer looking at increasing yr steel production and just done a deal with GBG at what appears "limited" logistics, wouldnt it be strategically "Olympian" to set up second deal from another Ozzie port with 'friendly company" (ROY) under same MO as first (GBG)???
Thats the FIRST thing which came to mind ..... and no I havent been talking to anyone on this.
QEDs :
Reckon conceptual handshake with chinese already done for this.
Reckon many similarities for likely ROY-GBG merger later on these magnetite projects.
Reckon the chinese want delivery ex TWO ozzie ports for obvious strategic reasons.
I wouldnt worry about the capex ....... this is too big for it NOT to be funded by chinese (?) later. Immediate funding requirement for THIS project is 5 mill over first 3 years PFS (?)
NICE TO HEAR intensity of focus on other projects will NOT wane ....... hence this is extra string to the bow .... POSITIVE ....... and no dilution of effort either ..... new team specific to this ...... positive ..... commion friends / skills ???
SMELLS of demerger of U-assets etc into pure U company coming later ...... IMO strategically BEST thing they could do (and plenty of that happening atm)to maximise U-rating.
6 mill shares were dumped on first 2 days of this announcement ........ crunched from 5th wavelet high (17.5) all the way down to the L/T UPTREND LINE (12) where I thought was a screaming buy level ....... then bounced as would be expected. Now THAT was a nice clean-up of loose holdings hey ?
Today scraps only and back to important pivot.
First wave 3.8 - 17.5 = x 4.6 driver and now complete.
Looks like we are now in "a" of "a-b-c" second wave retrace with the low already set .....
Third wave when the dust settles and maybe with a nice trigger (eg U-hits, next stage of this deal, other JV deal ???)might see x 4.6+ from either the horizontal break 11.5 or the pivotal midpoint say abut 14+ ...... "third" target circa 53 -64 cps ?
This might take a while with prob 5 waves BUT thats only 50 - 60 mill market cap (current shares cap) and we are talking multi-billion buck project evolution here.
THE L/T UPTREND FROM 3.8 LOW HELD AND IS INTACT IN THIS DUMP !!!
U might think me stupid but too many "cosmic smoke signals" here for me NOT to suspect we are waiting for the bushfire to ignite. Seems to me the boyz here might be a bit jealous of GBGs "size" and might be using their model to evolve. Hope its not the RIO_Bureaucracy syndrome and Marcus is up to this. Feels like an FMG - kinda dream from their early days.
5 years to BFS ?
Current market cap bout 12 mill bucks ?
Strategic placements coming up with maybe top-up for shareholders ? ....... working cap next year or so ....... wait a bit for U-results to help with more later ?
Sorry guys, might be a pipedream here but wasnt long ago when GBG was one too and now look at them, 700 mill market cap and growing ?
LOVE the odds ......... Ima ongoing accumulator of stock cos wanna be in the top 10 ultimatley here methinks.
SMSF class ....... market action is telling us this a-b-c may not last THAT long ...... SEVERAL drilling programs underway / about to for U + Au ....... GIVE ME MORE haha.
Ok been sipping the grape juice tonite but this has a really sexier feel to it now than before ....... LOVE the strategic possibilities now ........ seems to be tying in better all over ....... feels like ROY might end up part of a greater GBG but probably AFTER we get the U in a different vehicle ....... makes sense to me ...... but then ...... haha !
CANT BELIEVE it was dumped so hard on this GREAT announcement (IMO)
IMBOOC
MFE Price at posting:
7.3¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
