The Pfizer products coming off patent is only a positive for the wholesalers. At present 100% is not going through them as only available from Pfizer.
Personally I am prepared to pay 10% more and use a non Pfizer generic rather than support their model but I may be in a minority. My generics would then be supplied by Sigma or API if it is an Alphapharm product. Currently I am forced to buy it from Pfizer.
I shall be doing my level best to reduce my Pfizer spend to as little as possibly and currently we have a 90% generic to 10% branded mix.
If Alphapharm went back to Dhl which they tried in the past, or Sanofi went direct there would be repercussions, but at the end of the day there has to be a supplier of pharmaceuticals that follow a wholesale model.
The cost of that service would be set by a competitive market and would have to be at a level that shows some profit. 22 million profit on the massive turnover that currently exists is not sustainable in my opinion only.
The real contest is how well they can compete against each other to maintain share without losing all profitability.
If they can do it well the return should be much higher then the capitalisation and share price could soar. If they get it wrong, your guess is as good as mine. But it will be an interesting 12 months
API Price at posting:
26.0¢ Sentiment: None Disclosure: Not Held