Just a few Note on announcement 15 March 2016
You can see the field in is trouble from the highlights
- Warro 5 & 6 have established natural flows
They are never likely to be commercial, if Warro 3 did the same as 5 & 6 it would drop by more than half , if you added them all together they still wouldn’t run a commercial turbine generator system (shame but that’s the truth)
- The water production can be managed
They say themselves that it may be management. IMHO I don’t think water is the main issue, I think there are two main issues, lack of shareholder information and porosity and permeability. Something that now has only popped up after drilling, It would be interesting to see the Discovery Group, Denver USA report to see what they say on the issue and when it was an issue.
- Future wells and frac programs do not need to try and avoid fractures
This is a risk issue from knowledge. The CEO said they drilled in the wrong place i.e. through a fault line (Brisbane Meeting), that’s just poor quality Geo and a mistake that should never happen, unless the fault line wasn’t known in the first place
- Warro 4 to be restarted in upper zone from Warro 5&6
I think what they are saying the gas is coming from the upper pay zone or levels. That would make drilling deeper in wells which have not reached the bottom of the gas pay zone i.e. wells 5&6 less likely. The news fracing is not required due to the natural flows, gas can freely flow from the bottom up in other word that’s like says there is no gas or at least no commercial flows lower down, but we will check because we still haven’t spent all the money. 6 wells have now been drilled in the area and not one can lay claim to having a lot of commercial gas.
From this announcement, it is clear TVS team had information they should have passed onto the shareholders. The “ Gas based on log interpretation carried out by Discovery Group, Denver USA” would have been given to WA government for the frac plan, it was available to directors and major shareholder so why was it not issued to shareholders.
The information is poor in this announcement. As far as actual research goes, there is none that’s reliable, only a few words to try and keep shareholders onside and then cut and paste. There is no independence and very little experience, proved by drilling a hold in a fault line, you could not invest on this information or make a decision, but that’s what they want shareholder to do.
Take the point of where the gas is (
Warro gas accumulation has very substantial gas colum height (over 440m) and the bottom of the accumulations is yet to be reached page 2 on page 4
Warro-4 used large scale fracs and should give valuable indication of the long-term flow capacity of the upper sands……….
Warro-4 flowed each zone for two weeks at a combined rate of 0.6mmcfd with approximately 650bwpd
Guys and girls that’s low and the record shows from 5&6 it will halve over a short interval, that’s the record 5 out of 6 wells, and the gas is in the upper sands why was this information on 3&4 not given to shareholder before.
People need to remember a major shareholder sold out that had this information, here we are on the 15 March 2016 and still not given all the details of what was in the Discovery Group, Denver USA report. The Geo reports or early test reports. We still don’t know what frac plan that was given to WA government was. However, Director and major shareholders were given this.
We do know from the announcement there in no gas. Why because they say so. Page 2 in 2
nd paragraph The higher permeability natural fractures will act as a conduit for reservoir water and should also provide a good network through which can be produced. It only stands to reason once the water is pumped down like in 5&6 the gas can flow freely but that is not happening, why. I think you will find that is why someone sold a lot of shares. I would also point out
higher permeability has nothing to do with tight wells which is what was indicated earlier in other announcements, there is a major issue here that needs to be explained by some independent professional and not a $20,000 self expressed news release claiming the “ Next oil rush” when most if not all contradicts this announcement. Remember TSV shareholder paid for both.
Why did they keep drilling? because the money was there to spend, even if the chances of finding commercial gas was low to very low or lower. Why shift the US asset’s to a private company with a large pay packet for directors, I will let you work that one out.
What you should know is now TSV has nothing to move onto, our valuable US asset’s were given away for no return to TSV the company and that a ?.
I have sold out to stop the loss, but I haven't finished yet
