June Research Report, page-6

@nordesmic

Nord,

I don't think there is any particular rational for the gold hoarding. It is probably a peculiarity originating from the director's own world views if you like.

Considering the gold hoarding has been going on since about 2001 when the gold price was in the doldrums, the strategy has not been too bad so far in my opinion and with the unprecedented worldwide expansion of credit I think it won't go too far wrong in the future (stripping at Raleigh started in Dec 2000 when the gold price was US$274 and no I'm not missing a digit at the front that number).

Just by way of a little historical background, at that stage (before Raleigh was developed and the JV commenced with RND/TBR on the ground surrounding the Kundana mine) Goldfields operated the Kundana mine and mill (milling was originally done on site at Kundana before the mill was closed and the ore started to be hauled 40kms to the Paddington mill) and according to reports from the time "Kundana pursued a hand-to-mouth existence; it was lease bound and had geotechnical challenges underground". Three years earlier Goldfields "was facing a “doom-and-gloom” scenario. Reserves at the Paddington mine had been re-optimised at spot, not hedge price as used by the previous owners, and mine life was reduced from 8 years to approximately 18 months." Also Goldfields' "Henty mine in western Tasmania was operating with just 4 years of reserves" and "Goldfields essentially comprised its 25% holding in the Porgera mine in the highlands of Papua New Guinea. The share price reflected this sad state of affairs, sinking into the $0.70 range at one stage from its float at $3.30 in 1995."

As you can see the gold mining business has always been pretty tough and hard to make a buck in. The market always seems to forget and confirmation biases and exuberance prevail until the tide goes out again.

I think the main driver of shareholder value for Tribune and Rand will continue to be the profitable mining of gold and the inevitable increase in share price to reflect the growth in the company's liquid assets (gold hoard). Although the market is reluctant to value the company much higher than those assets it has tended to maintain a share value reflective of those assets and there is no reason to believe that this won't continue (on average) in the long run as well. As mentioned in my previous post I don't think the market prices risk in correctly so maybe RND/TBR are priced correctly and many of the others gold mining companies are not. There are not many long run case studies with gold companies to go by, as many have failed or have been taken over. If you do find one say like NCM you'll notice the wild share price fluctuation. Was NCM valued correctly at $43.47 at the time by your definitions?

As far as dividends go I would be surprised if the company doesn't consider paying a dividend (or a least pays a special dividend) in the not too distant future. I know quite a few of the longer term shareholders have called for one and the company is soon to be in a position to pay one once Pegasus has been bedded down. If it does happen it is sure to catch the market by surprise.

I can't see the company diverging majorly from the main game and making any serious $ acquisitions. The unfinished business in my view remains in Ghana and the realisation of value from the Japa project which the company has held since 1996 (if my memory serves me correctly). What you need to understand is that it took the directors about 20 years before the companies started to realise value from the first mine developed at Kundana in 2001. They are not people who make impulsive decisions or who are lacking in patience.

I hope this helps you build your picture of the company. I personally see the next 5 years as the real cream years for these companies.

Eshmun
DYOR IMHO