john risk - wheat price direction?, page-79

aimone,

With regards wheat. Define 'range' if you wouldn't mind.

And what makes 2016 special?

I'll give you the big tip. If we get an El Nino event this season that cleans-up the east coast, or worse still, the nation, we'll be much higher by Sept - and that includes CBOT!

All else being equal, it's looking like another year where world stocks won't be sufficiently increased to place much downward pressure on price. Even if Oz has a big year, the Nth Hem looks like neutralising that.

I see fair value as very, very similar to last year, with the added bonus for sellers that Ukraine has forced the market to build a premium into the market. If that force was to relax, I could see $20-25 coming out of the market but not $40-50. That still leaves us around the $285-290 APW track Adelaide, which is similar to last season at harvest.