Every farmer has a different set of parameters and breakeven but most importantly, it's about setting rules and sticking to them.
A simple but informative guide is to look at your price deciles. If we're sitting at decile 7-10, your farm is likely to be sitting in a good position, depending on any tax issues, capital purchases etc
So if your target price has been reached, then your next step is likely to be price as much as you can afford to do, given your production certainty, historical minimum production forecasts. I don't believe farmers should try and trade large portions of their crop or try and pick the top. As with shares, it's a mugs game and in the long run, you're likely to get found-out.
For the scenario where your target price hasn't been hit but you're still in the profit zone, you need to think a little more about markets and pay some attention to world s&d. I see the current cereal grains prices as about fair value, just as i did back in April. Between now and then we've seen some wild swings that generated some massively obvious sell signals for those who has production certainty and were watching. But price has come back to fair value now with Ukraine abating and the market again looking to actual balance sheets when making pricing decisions. In short, wheat/barley could just as easily go up from here as down but i question whether we'll see the May highs, without a significant, yield-reducing El Nino event. Canola will also be pressured by a large world soy bean and canola crop and Canada having large carry-out. Some are pricing canola if production certainty is there and it's making a profit at current prices and i do see the merit in this, as you don't want to get caught holding-out for $520, only to see $450.
None of this is personal advice though, just general thoughts on what i'm seeing atm and some common themes i go through with clients to help them make decisions.
