john risk - wheat price direction?, page-104

Wheat now at 601.25! I didn't conceive it going so low. It's not simple supply and demand. Many/most people in sub-Saharan Africe (800m+) love bread but seldom eat it. It's available but too expensive for them! Yup... that's how poverty stricken the place is. They eat green banana (plantain) staple in W. Africa, and maize in Central and Southern Africa. I suspect horn of Africa eat bread a fair amount. So if crop production is poor... and it often is, then food from USA?Europe?UN is dumped along the roadsides. I remember seeing a couple of huge (200kg?) bags of rice lying every few kms along a main road in Mozambique several years ago. Had 'gift of USA' or similar stamped on bag. So yes, hundreds of millions are hungry but bread is too dear! Demand is there, but without the cash to do a transaction. So commodity price barely affected.
Take Somalia. Has pop of 10.9m projected to hit 13.2m by end of 2020. Doubt they produce any wheat at all. Scary graph in link below.
Did anyone conceive 30-40 yrs ago that wheat/bread would become a food restricted to rich/middle class countries? Places like Egypt still eat a heck of a lot of wheat based food stuffs. Is staple of entire Middle East region. I remember buying bread in Turkey for 20c a smallish loaf. Bakeries there bake 3x per day. Can't beat that smell. Actually don't open the link. You'll lose yr appetite. World heading for catastrophe.

http://worldpopulationreview.com/countries/somalia-population/