Very interesting points & I do agree. Unemployment is a really key ideological difference and a marginal impact filtering through to jobseekers would not be surprising. I do think a Shorten leadership (being from the Labor economic right faction) would somewhat reduce the risk of this type of scenario though. The Labor right have traditionally promoted the free market to support their social policy agenda (a theme potentially even favourable to the private sector in the employment services space, in terms of level of support & training etc).
There’s also the potential upside of Government spend conceivably broadening their agenda in areas like the DES space with a stronger commitment (and therefore marketplace) to broadening the range and quality of support services.
As the core driver of half their business, potential policy changes are certainly something to start thinking about. Very difficult though to weigh the odds of 1) labor Govt being elected (was skeptical of polling after Brexit, lost all faith after Trump); and 2) specific details of the possible changes, timing of impacts to cashflow, which direction it would lead the private sector etc
