jerk reaction, page-29

the cap raising issue is sure one where you not entitled to an opinion, thats being very clearly demonstrated.

my view is thats it unpopular in any circumstance, but its something i feel i can get over..

the advantage for me atm is that whilst i am buying plenty of adi, the prices are brilliant right now. so despite not agreeing with the comments here, i still thank the participant for their excessive efforts in helping me out atm..

i think this comment from chris hodge imho last week clarified, to me at least, the adi position in its view of the near term..

Adelphi Managing Director Chris Hodge commented:
These latest flow rates are at the higher end of our expectations and continue to demonstrate the highly productive liquids rich nature of the Eagle Ford shale in our area. We now have four producing wells within the Sugarloaf AMI and have successfully appraised a large proportion of our lease area. We look forward to the upcoming fracture stimulation of the Rancho Grande well and to the continued production performance of our existing wells before commencement of the Sugarloaf development phase.

i take it to mean that post the hilcorp drilling results, and on the strength of their flow rates, the jvp in the AMI would be discussing the next phase, as its refereed to..

"the development phase"

if the results are poor, and i have yet to see evidence of that, hilcorp can up camp and forget it. and equally, if they like it, then a full development phase would be discussed.

that could happen in a matter of weeks to months from now, who would really know..

maybe i am wrong here, but since the the jvp have just announced the imminent potential onset of the full development phase. imho the fact one is being mentioned and considered speaks highly of how things are progressing for the adi acreages right now.. but its a point completely missed by everyone imho

if none of the jvp partners had capital to fund it, would the sp go blue sky? imho it may cause some significant downside, and depending on how quick that capital was needed, it would further impede abilities to negotiate..

another aspect of development i see is leasing, if you cant negotiate a lease, or in any given month are potentially going to loose massive acreages, and have not the sufficient funding in hand to cover wells on those acreages, then imho your putting yourself in peril.. we dont know how many wells are needed to keep acreages in the very near term, nor do we know exactly how many acreages are potentially going to be renewed or potentially lost. i would suggest that leasing is particularly going to be a significant contributor to where wells will be drilled

having nowhere near the right levels of cash in hand to contribute to the renewals of leases and ongoing costs of pipelines, infrastructure needs and requirements and wells costs may be something a arm-chair investor/critic is happy to live with, but perhaps in the world of full field development on plays like this, if the 3rd biggest privately owned oil company in the usa, hilcorp, is looking at potentially a full field development as adi is suggesting.. than imho a jvp partner with ZERO capital or maybe just a few dollars in hand ( and nothing close to the 200 mill needed at 10% share position), then perhaps hilcorp would be thinking hard on how fast a development can go ahead with a jvp in that type of shape..

many here dont think the results so far are anything significant.. thats obvious.. but those thinking these jvp partners are not taking the next phase seriously, may be gettign a bit of a shock in the future imho..

many are extremely negative and excessively cynical of the efforts of those partners whom are, imho, taking this play extremely seriously, and imho gearing up for and pre empting the very real possibility of full field development, but being critical of a jvp partner for not being in a position where they are unable to do anything, or being unable to keep pace with maybe 6 rigs coming in and putting up front the massive costs for a brand new full field (from greenfield) development is a perspective i cant share right now..

hey, but as before, i am buying atm, and i certainly cant see anyone here sharing the same view on the future of the sugarkane field as i do..

your all entitled to an opinion, and i dont share the views expressed here at all. and i am not upset with you having those view just because i cant concur.. but those having those views are in my view not going to get over this cap raising at all any time soon.

so i may be alone but i dont share the view that the jvp is not going forward and planning forward.. nor that the sugarkane is to be shelved.. i think the planning and suggestions in the last release are pretty positive myself. and i am investing in the adi share on the basis that things are about to go forward, so i am jumping in before the official announcements are made, i think the suggestions are all there, the indications from the wells are that good enough imho to go full field development, and the cap raising was with that in mind..

look, if i am wrong and the results so far on the wells opened up thus far are going to see hilcorp turn away from this play, then i miscalculated big time i guess, buts thats the risk reward that investing in adi can get you..

good luck to any investors sharing the same view.. and all the best to those unable to get over the cap raising requirement needed by the adi for its future project requirements both outside and within the sugarkane jvp..