its time, page-3

G'day Michaelirish,

After reading your post, I did have another look at CEUs figures and presentations, I did consider taking a punt on CEU when it was under 30c, but decided against it then, and probably wont buy it now either.

Whilst I agree with some of your points, some are not as cut and dried as you state, I did post on CEU a week after it billing commenced, and things havnt changed that much IMO, heres my original post,

http://hotcopper.com.au/post_single.asp?fid=1&tid=724482&msgid=3941641

Here is my take on some of your points

3 and 4. We have very reliable public transport, a regular bus service (12min to frankston) and trains to melb, and buses to other local areas from frankston. But cars are essential if you dont want to travel to melb.

6. Not quite sure the GFC has fully played out as yet, but I agree inflation does seem like the obvious outcome.

7a. The alternate routes are still a viable alternate, the bus lanes mentioned, in some places are new lanes, but all cut out several hundered meters before traffic lights, this allows all lanes to flow through congested lights.
b. Pensinsula link still years away, and the western port hwy is and still will be a viable alternate to the toll road for people travelling further down the peninsula.

8. Traffic, the July figures were an illusion IMO, the reason they looked good was the extra 2 working days (10% extra) compared to June. Average workday trips (AWT) were below or at the same levels as May, I think the AWT is the most accurate way to monitor road usage.
I dont notice that traffic is increasing, business out this way that use the road are mostly manufacturing (imo) or servicing mfg, and for most business is still quite.
A few of the business that I service are working shorter weeks, and workers $$$ are tight.

Maybe its time,

My concerns

I think the $600mil they have should get them through, until the road ultimately turns a profit, but that depends on the bankers willingness to refinance (pretty likely).

What If interest rates increase, due to inflation, to higher levels than they are presently fixed at. (when next refi is agreed)

Will people reconsider using the road when they get their July bills, with the new higher charges.

I dont think that Buffet would likes handing his sole asset back to the govt for nix, in 34 years.

I was considering CEU for my SMSF, but spending the last couple of hours looking over the figures, I dont think its time just yet, but then again when it is finally time, the shareprice probably wont be 40c.

cheers grant