Its Over

Originally posted by 1ronnie ↑

HC has certainly made life posting a lot more difficult...

I cant paste the link of my 14/1/19 post in which I alluded that acquisitions typically represent an acknowledgment that tech microcap's business model is not working well - if you cannot grow organically or fast enough from your existing business, you buy profits. And while that is not necessarily a bad thing , example APX, it does reflect failure in part of the existing business model. So it would interesting to see what BUD announces in a couple of days in relation to a possible failed arrangement (e.g discontinuation) with Digitel and announcement of a mini acquisition of a business (to be disclosed) to possibly buffer against the Digicel discontinuation. Its a hunch but one you can possibly deduce when all three announcements are designed to be made in one go in a single day. Depending on the 4C announcement, the disclosure may initially boost stock price [ for punters not seeking to truly understand what such acquisition could mean ] but possibly represent a good exit point for remaining holders.
Will the acquisition involve a CR, a share dilution (payment with shares) or erosion of their cash hoard? It will be one of those but it wont surprise me if they will use the acquisition to raise some cash! If so this could be the start of the big drop.

For LVT holders, their year on year ARR growth is seemingly so strong but they have not reported quarter on quarter as they should be (bet you the quarter on quarter results were not as strong plus it is always higher on a low base) ! And their half year cash from revenues are just $6.5m - seems like a disconnect with revenues expressed in ARR. To me this does not smell right, and I cautioned people about this similar to what I cautioned about BIG's revenue reporting. Their 6 months cash revenues barely covered admin overheads and marketing costs, let alone the $17m staff costs in half a year. No wonder they were raising another $20m when they already had $20m (because they spent it all in half a year).

The Dow fell 200 points although it fell as much as 500 points at one stage. Going forwards, volatility is likely to return. The fall was because of poor guidance and results from Caterpillar, a bellweather for global trade and the poorer results were due to China slowdown [so this is another proof after Apple].

The weeks ahead is going to be tricky. Apple results, Fed decision on rate, Mueller investigation outcome [ we are certainly getting closer to finding evidence against POTUS] , US China trade negotiations outcome. On balance of probability, I believe the January relief or recovery rally has already ended and we are likely to retrace back the gains made in January.

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