it is always darkest before the dawn, page-4

Bargain, Flyboy

Thanks for your patient responses to my post in the other thread. I remember having questions similar to those I was writing about while reading the last quarterly - but I'd forgotten about it. My dear wife might have something with all those alzheimers cracks.

Leaving aside my niggling doubts about capex and revenue estimates, PAX will need to raise $20.4 mill for Sokoria (45 % of total $45.3 mill equity estimate from the quarterly) and $3 mill for DP (51 % of $5.8 mill). These total $23.4 mill so I guess the other $5 mill from the $28 mill mentioned before is for admin and other projects.

To me it's more than a tad embarrassing that an ASX company has to rely on overseas funds to help raise that amount for supposedly good projects. Who knows how much they'll put in and what price they'll charge, but they won't be cheap. PAX will need a significant SP kick after any PPA announcement in order to get an acceptable deal.

I'm not sure I agree with you Bargain about PAX having needed a JV partner. Bakrie had the rights and I thought PAX JV'd in to provide the technical and operational expertise as well as its own funds. The absence of any CP reports, or public reports of any new geological work that PAX has organised, worries me about its technical capabilities.

Overall, if the PPAs are signed, and the resources are as good as they say they are, then I still think PAX is a takeover target, by either the overseas funds (why bother with deals when you can buy the whole company for loose change) or a geothermal major (who won't have to bother with all the setup issues).

Now, question for me, should I buy now at rock bottom and get some rights to the later CRs or move on?