Is this the first of many., page-13

Diesel

as you know - there is circa 150-200Kt of additional pig-iron planned capacity in indo ......this is likely to get shelved ....

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...kel-smelters-agree-20-production-cut-for-2016

china is telling the universe that its waaay cheaper to buy refined metal, than to produce the stuff .......

the above should be starting to be felt in Jan/feb ......and I will watch the cancelled warrants rather cerfully ......rekon this is a good sign that market will tighten quite quckly.....

as you say - how quickly any output could be brought back on line - is one of the keys .........expansions of exsisting would require capital .....and some of the big guys are finding it more difficult to access same .....so that implies hedging or forwards ......and the obvious timeline (plant completion / rampu up / production etc) .......so I am starting to fiemly believe that 2016 / 2017 will be rather good for the devils metal !

just my opinion
rgds
V_H