OK I will spell (some things) out.I've said the extent to which...

OK I will spell (some things) out.

I've said the extent to which Gold may rise is debatable.

For the sake of arguement lets assume you are correct and that Gold rises significantly as a result of de-valued currencies. Sure there are supporting arguments for this cash regarding Fiat money systems etc. I'm not disputing this point (in this this post or forum anyway).

What I am disputing is the fact that this will have any major positive impact on the (potential) profitability of small(er) and/or high costs producers like MON.

Very simply:

- costs, in the same currency, will also rise. This is what is driving up the Gold price in the first place

- if all currecies are devalued, then the company will also be de-valued, because revenue, expenses and profit are all measured in (what you say is devalued) currency - unless you are producing gold and selling it for gold! You might notice a small problem there.

What is a good position in these economic/finanical enviroments you describe is owning actual gold - not producing it at (relatively) high costs. It is the larger, low costs producers that will benefit.

As an illustration - Gold has what, gone up 3 fold since the earlier 2000's. When you calculate this in real terms (adjusting for inflation etc) it's not as high as that, but that's another matter. Look at all the smaller/higher cost gold producers - have they done well - I think not. If I have time some day - I'll get some hard data for you.

Physical gold is a worthwhile hedge for shorter periods of uncertaintly and turmoil. It doesn't perform well in the longer term. Look at the value of Gold for the past few decades. I know I'm being selective in my choice of period - but look at how it has performed since the late 70's/early 80's up till now - it's gone backwards in real terms. Money in the bank would have out performed it.

Be aware of the "rising gold price" trap. You can use some obscure, fancy term like "wave III of three" but that doesn't replace reason and argument.

Good luck