EAR 0.75% 33.3¢ echo resources limited

Hi again GB,I've done some research, and my initial sentiment is...

  1. 424 Posts.
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    Hi again GB,

    I've done some research, and my initial sentiment is a hold. I'm sure you know as well as anybody that whilst it's good to have a plan, things usually don't go according to plan. Right now, we can't really tell whether the new CEO/MD can deliver. EAR's track record also isn't available to us (because they don't have one). It seems the market has fully priced in the positive news, in anticipation of the March BFS to approve debt funding - in the event there are hiccups, EAR only have enough cash runway for ~2-3 more quarters.

    Whilst this seems like a solid op, various things can go wrong:

    - unpredictable weather
    - hiccup issues with processing plant, causing things like delays and etc.
    - LTI for miners
    - etc. etc.

    If, for whatever reason things don't go according to plan, I can see EAR's SP getting chopped in half over night - not being pessimistic, just being realistic, as there are a handful of junior miners who had so much potential but ended up like a GCY/MLX, etc. etc. etc.

    In summation: I think EAR is a good buy at <10c levels; buying at ~23 - 25c makes me uncomfortable and doesn't offer me the margin of safety I desire. This is even more true when I compare it to AMI - I recall you valuing AMI at a fair value of ~$1.44, which implies it has a similar upside to EAR, but without the huge potential downside of an unproven company. 

    Cheers,
    SB
 
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