I've now read some 20 odd articles, 5 leading broker reports on...

I've now read some 20 odd articles, 5 leading broker reports on the CML M&A action, plus the FIRB dribble on HC.

I can see an off market takeover by the KKR consortium being launched somewhere between A$14.50 to A$15.00 (taking account of comparable transactions and LBO metrics and PE IRR requirements), subject to:

(1) Unanimous Board Approval (notwithstanding a more attractive gazumping offer)
(2) Break Fee of ~A$20m
(3) Limited Due Diligence

Given upside to the current SP of ~10%, yet downside of (say ~15% - still above fundamental value), one could argue (everything being equal) that the risk is on the downside for this trade...

I don't think anything will happen for at least another week, just more speculation on price and identity.

I think I am going to short this stock for the next 3-5 days.

Views?