Long time holder (4 years), first time poster for this stock.
From the outset i would like to state i have 15 years in the Aviation Industry and hold a Masters in Air Transportation Management.
Your comparison with CNP as a short whilst broadly comparable as an infrastructure management comapany is admirable, but that is where the comparison ends.
MAP at present may be a short and that is only whilst the fuel price adds weight to the argument. So for traders, go ahead, and investors may choose to short using CFD's, but the fact remains that the company will continue to grow and be profitable.
There is a worldwide shortage of qualtiy high volume airports and as can be seen with for example India's move to masive spending on infrastructure at Hyberderbad and Chennai among others, there is more opportunity for asset management beyond those held by Macquarie at present.
The fuel price argument though valid all comes down to the ability to restrict passenger volume. Goverenement subsidised and protected airlines from oil producing states will be the ones that fit best to absorb the current oil price and if it persists we may see protectionism and changed bilateral air service agreements by countries to protect their airlines from predatory prices if the current fuel price cycle prevails.
Most airlines work on a 5% operating margin and are heavily unionised. Aviation analysts have been predicting this for decades and this is where the aircraft manaufaturers, airline operators and airport operators have had to collaborate to capture the trend for larger long haul aircraft that are modern and fuel efficient. These are all opportunities at staff cuts through efficiency and necesity
At the same time the business class sector has diminished with most large businesses now forcing their executives onto cattle class or the more increasingly private jet charter or wet lease.
In the last 2 decades and more importantly the last 5 years air tarvel has become increasingly accesible price wise eg cheaper to fly return 2 adults and 2 kids to the Gold Coast from Sydney than driving. In saying that, pure liesure travel makes up only a small percentage to most international / interstate destinations.
Airlines will push higher prices and as motorists have had to absorb cost at the bowser so will they with airfares. However the modernisation of aircraft, ticketing and a host of other features being brought online will help to keep those extra tarrifs to a minimum.
All the best.
Bacchus
MAP Price at posting:
0.0¢ Sentiment: LT Buy Disclosure: Held
