I was thinking about this today. I suspect that to short a stock ahead of a potential privatisation would be a dangerous tactic, especially since JP paid $12 for his last load of shares. More likely, he waits till the stock is trading 10% below $12 (ie 10.80) for a period of 3 months and then bids $12 for the balance, ie a 10% premium to the 3 month VWAP.Under those circumstances, there really is only 40-50c on the downside.
Alternative, they wait until the 1/2 year results come out and make the bid then. Any private equity group who may be party to a transaction would, I'm sure, prefer to wait until the results are out esp since its only a matter of a week away.
CWN Price at posting:
$11.23 Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
