Yes, prices could go to $10 but that would be below the marginal...

Yes, prices could go to $10 but that would be below the marginal cost of ripping the ore out of the ground and selling it for about 99% of the iron ore producers. Costs have gone up with inflation over the past 30 years. Which means it is more expensive now to produce a tonne of iron ore today than it was 30 years ago and it will continue to get more expensive as the resource is depleted. Thats how commodities markets works. Rarely do you see a chart of a commoditiy where the long term price is falling...just doesnt happen. Prices will only go higher over the next 10-20 years. Marginal cost for most producers is like $30-$40 which means that should be your worst case scenario.