AI99, my conjecture is the Mining Lobby, is more likely to be...

AI99, my conjecture is the Mining Lobby, is more likely to be aboard with this than not, especially considering present Coal prices and Mine closures. Other mines Gas contracts are running out and are looking at higher Contract price renewals, so there is also that to consider.

Undoubtedly there is a strong CSG Lobby in Queensland, that is a given, they even managed to get their own CSG Commission to facilitate new projects etc. However they now run risk of having either the State or Fed's holding back Gas reserves for Domestic use in the near future. This at a time when their hubs and export facilities are getting close to up and running. The price they can get for exports is higher then what they may get domestically. They are simply going to want to export as much as possible and get a return on their massive outlays.

In short the East Coast is going to need more Gas, they would not be thrilled in being forced to supply it. Another source of Gas may alleviate any pressure for them to lose exports to keep domestically. Lobbying against UCG would be a double edged sword for them at this point. One might expect a massive public outcry and backlash should they be paying premium prices for household gas usage.

Some may say that UCG has been forced into delay after delay, much scrutiny and to jump through numerous hoops. Some blame CSG as the root cause, others the Qld Gov., some a combination of both. I have my own thoughts on that but expounding them is a waste of time as it is merely based on speculation and conjecture, not facts.

Meanwhile CNX has jumped through all the hoops, dotted all the i's and crossed all the t's to date. Including satisfying a ISP. My money is on board to say they will continue to do so.

For myself what is of interest now is whether the QGov give the go ahead to proceed with the Application Process prior to the Summer break. This may be a better indication of whether or not we are still in the slow lane. My thoughts on that are if we don't hear by the end of this month, then we may not get it until mid Feb 2015 or so. Should that occur then we may see some short term southern action in the SP.

In the mean time CNX now has the money to continue preparing the necessary for the Blue Gum Project, which would indicate they are confident of getting the go-ahead to proceed with the Application process. As I said, the timing for such approval may be the big question mark at this point.