You stated that risk and return are not known variables and you...

You stated that risk and return are not known variables and you go on to explain they can be estimated - I can read that. What you are clearly describing is how much can the share price can possibly go up and how much it can possibly go down, both of which you are correct can be estimated, and each of us will estimate differently.

The 2nd part of risk I am describing is not risk aversion it is risk, and it is the only risk that matters because that's what can be defined and that is what you have full control of before deciding to enter a position.

I was not describing how much you decide to risk. How much you decide to risk is the measure of risk aversion. If you are more averse to risk, you will be prepared to risk less $$$'s on a position, if you are less risk averse then you will be prepared to risk more $$$'s on a position.

But once you have chosen how many $$$'s you risk on a position, then that is the $$$'s at risk and it is totally known.

Cheers, Sharks.