6 months ago, everyone was stressing over the levels of debt that CWN would incur from building Barangaroo, and the fact that Macau wouldn't deliver the sort of returns that had previously been expected because of a Chinese crackdown on illicit junket money laundering, and because the Chinese were restricting the numbers of tables per casino. So, in the face of that headwind and a really poor share price performance ($16- 12 over 12 months), CWN sold down a third of its holding in Melco to a) bolster the war chest and b) send a message to the market that they weren't necessarily married to Macau.
A few months after that event, with the bank balance looking pretty robust, and less exposure to Macau, the market really hadn't priced in those positives, which tells me that the market didn't want to price in any upside anyway. Now that this latest crackdown has occurred, the market wants to de-risk by a further 13%.
To my way of thinking, with a better bank balance, less exposure to Macau, and a cheaper share price to reflect the latest drama, it might nor be a bad thing if, in fact, CWN were to turn around and tell the market that Barangaroo is on the back burner for a while. As far as VIP guests are concerned, I really don't think they will be deterred from visiting Melbourne and Perth. Those that have been guests before, will presumably come back because they know they will be treated like gods, and in which case no marketing is required.
Oversold and a good buy medium term IMO. I will let the shorts have their day in the sun for the next few days, and then buy some stock.
Expand