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877 Posts.

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20/04/16

05:21

Post #: 17549299
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Originally posted by Boomorbust ↑

FOMO (fear of missing out) is a news driven catalyst for SP appreciation. It's unpredictable and difficult to call with any real confidence. If certain inputs are there like heavy over subscription and solid partnerships (for example) and that extends to engaging critical mass (early adoption) and strong immediate monetisation (revenue generation) prospects then that definitely starts to tip the odds of FOMO in our favour (IMO of course).

Consideration must be given to what has/will have changed before suspension and leading up to re quotation. Thred was initially envisioned as a consumer based product only but has taken a "game changing" shift in direction (quoting David) with the engagement of Microsoft and the exposure to MS distribution channel (which includes 80% of Fortune 500 Companies). Thred now has the clout behind it to exploit the B2B market and monetisation has been brought forward by 12-18m (quoting David) and that is a significant "something" Thred didn't have prior to suspension. I don't think that partnership can be underestimated and is currently the biggest catalyst we have for SP appreciation on open.

On the flip side of the coin there's no escrow (lock up period) for the Convertible Notes that were voted for conversion into shares at the last meeting of shareholders. So we have an influx of shares coming on market that will put those holders in a position of immediate and significant profit plus the shares issued from the CR. That equates to downward pressure on the SP early.

Taking into consideration both the positives and negatives is important but it's impossible to say with any certainty what will happen. What I think may happen is churn (high share turnover) and likely some weakness in the first four weeks (give or take) of re quotation. This can be looked at as a positive or a negative depending on whether you are a buyer or seller. Weakness provides opportunity. Strength provides profitability. If you are wearing both hats (trading) then you need to watch for certain things to maximise your chances of a profitable trade. Charts/moving averages/buyer and seller depth etc etc
We will also possibly have those shareholders looking to get out if they feel uncomfortable with the length of time that their capital has been tied up over the blackout period (suspension).

Is the MC (market capitalisation) of the company in the right ballpark? Time will tell. Always prepare for the worst case scenario is my suggestion. That way you are always pleasantly surprised if Mr Market decides to smile on you!

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As always, a very good post Boom. I applied for more and patiently wait till re listed.
I am into many companies and have never lost yet on a new issue. They can surprise you. Not mentioning which companies but have another 2 Share purchase plans going at the moment. Tomorrow 1st one allocated and during the allocation period went from the purchase price of 0.85 to 0.145. Oversubscribed by 500%, so scaled back allocation. 2nd one has gone from 0.009 to 0.020. Loaded up big time and patiently wait as still about 4 weeks remaining. Price determined at 20% disc to average share price in the 5 days prior to 18th May.
GL to all as I think a bright future ahead, but as they say Fortune follows the Brave, but I am only risking a very small percentage of combined profits so far this year.

PRA Price at posting: 1.0¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
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