Had my finger on the Sell button back at $6 (mostly because I had become impatient at waiting for what I felt was the "real" value) but held on through last year until this disaster occurred.
But even now, looking back at the 2013 Ann Report, the cash flow was the only real concern, and I assumed it was due to timing, as the Inventory value was high and I thought that was finished work not paid for.
The main lesson here for me is just the risk in a firm that has projects of much greater value than their own equity. A mistake on something of such relative size can destroy a firm, as it has done here. But don't all Mining Services firms face that risk? In which case it comes back to management, and clearly someone stuffed up at Forge.
I've been disappointed with the commentary so far, not just on HC, but in the press, as nobody has delved into the actual events surrounding the two projects. Specifically: - how did these cost overruns go unnoticed until the October reviews? - where did their internal processes break down to allow this to happen...on 2 projects?
I can't wait to read a retelling of the month of October at Forge. Glowing Annual Report followed two weeks later by "Financial Disaster".
It will make compelling reading, but who is investigating THAT story?
FGE Price at posting:
91.5¢ Sentiment: Sell Disclosure: Held