Hate to have to say it but NdPr took quite a hit yesterday, nonetheless analysts are starting to understand the impacts of scale & recoveries on Lynas costs per kg.
While they'd luv to be selling at higher values LAMP optimisation is actually raising margins in a soft price environment, speaks to the cash cow as values lift on demand recovery.
Some indications Dragon forecast here:
"China-ASEAN Rare Earth Industry Development Seminar and 2018 (4th) China Rare Earth Forum, Wang Qinhua, vice president of China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association, said that although China is a rare earth country in the world, it exports a considerable amount of rare earth products every year, but China and the world. The rare earth industries are mutually intertwined, interdependent and mutually reinforcing. It is hoped that all parties will build consensus, plan for cooperation, expand opening up, strengthen communication and consultation between countries, and promote the development of high-quality rare earth industries.
According to statistics from relevant institutions, the consumption of rare earths is relatively concentrated compared with other metals. The consumption of rare earths in China, Japan and the United States ranks among the top three in the world. In recent years, global consumption of rare earths has continued to grow. It is estimated that global consumption in 2018 The amount is approximately 155,000 tons (REO).
I. Consumption of rare earth permanent magnet materials in China
1. New energy vehicles (motor + battery)
Since 2015, China's new energy vehicle production has continued to grow rapidly, with an average annual growth rate of about 38%. From January to September this year, the output reached 735,000 units, and the annual target is 1 million units. According to estimates, it is estimated that NdFeB will be consumed. 7,635 tons, accounting for 5% of China's total production of NdFeB, plans to double by 2020, with an annual output of 2 million new energy vehicles, about 15960 tons of NdFeB, accounting for 9.4% of China's total NdFeB production. %. .
2. Industrial robot (permanent magnet synchronous servo motor)
According to statistics, from January to September 2018, the output of industrial robots in China was 108,300 units, an increase of 9.3% year-on-year. It is estimated that the annual output will be nearly 150,000 units, and the consumption of NdFeB should be 4,500 tons, accounting for 2.9% of China's NdFeB production.
From 2018 to 2020, the average annual growth rate of industrial robots in China is estimated to be about 20%; by 2020, the annual output of industrial robots will be nearly 230,000 units, and 6900 tons of NdFeB will be consumed, accounting for 4.1% of China's NdFeB production. .
3. Energy-saving elevator (permanent magnet synchronous traction machine)
Affected by real estate, trade wars and other factors, China's elevator production growth slowed down this year. According to statistics, in 2018, China's elevator output was about 816,000 units, an increase of 3% year-on-year. Among them, there are about 750,000 vertical elevators, which consume about ferroniobium. Boron 3000 tons, accounting for about 1.9% of China's NdFeB production.
It is estimated that by 2020, about 800,000 units will need to consume 3,200 tons of NdFeB.
4, inverter air conditioner (rare earth permanent magnet inverter compressor)
According to the statistics of the National Bureau of Statistics, the output of air conditioners in China is 160 million units in 2018. It is estimated that the annual output will be nearly 200 million units, of which inverter air conditioners account for about 55%, while inverter air conditioners using NdFeB permanent magnet materials account for about the inverter air conditioners. Half of the total, nearly 55 million units, about 6600 tons of NdFeB, which accounts for 4.3% of China's NdFeB production.
It is estimated that 70 million units will be reached in 2020, and 8400 tons of NdFeB will be consumed, accounting for 4.9% of China's NdFeB production.
In short, the establishment of the strategic position of rare earth permanent magnet materials will further promote the development of China's rare earth permanent magnet materials industry, and the huge market demand will make the application of rare earth permanent magnet materials in the downstream field have great room for growth.
Second, the current state of rare earth consumption
American rare earth consumption is highly dependent on foreign countries. Judging from the current global rare earth production, no country or region can completely replace China's rare earth supply to the United States in the short term. The catalyst is the largest rare earth application field in the United States. The rare earth products imported from China are mainly based on lanthanide products.
China's exports of rare earth smelting and separating products to the United States account for nearly 30% of total exports. It is estimated that this year's exports to the United States will be about 14,000 tons, basically the same as the previous year. In recent years, China's exports of rare earth permanent magnets to the United States. It accounts for about 11% of China's total exports. In the first nine months of this year, China’s exports of rare earth permanent magnets to the United States reached more than 3,000 tons, close to the full year of 2017. It is expected that the export volume of rare earth permanent magnets in the United States will exceed last year, close to 4,000 tons."
Note despite the incessant negativity from our two most prolific US commentators NdFeB demand grew some 33% under their noses last year, 3kt to projected 4kt, + whatever they bought from Japan. The total of course, in components & finished goods, would be several multiples of that.
Expand
(20min delay)
