The economies of scale would come from having buying power with suppliers as well as taking out back-office support costs. I think it unlikely you would get much pricing power out of bigger scale when two insurers represent 70% of the total market (and one of them already have their own repair shop business).
1H17 will be interesting.
My back-of-the-envelope calcs for baseline revenue, after accounting for acquisitions and disposals announced to the market (I know there have been acquisitions not announced to the market from reading Paint & Panel online), is $170m (v $108m for 1H16). Most of this uplift takes into account $40m from the Gemini acquisition (3 months revenue) which took place in Oct-16.
Given management's tendency to overstate revenue uplift which has mostly come from acquisition it will be interesting to see:
* by how much 1H17 revenue exceeds the $170m baseline figure (excl. acquisitions) to see if it is materially different to the IBISWorld revenue growth assumption of 1% p.a.
* what progress is being made on expanding margins
I also saw, in reading Paint & Panel, someone has questioned the veracity of IBISWorld's industry revenue figure of $7.1b p.a. suggesting it might actually be closer to $3-4b p.a. because IBISWorld includes a lot of other industries in their report not related to smash repairs.
AMA Price at posting:
$1.08 Sentiment: Hold Disclosure: Not Held
