So do you see all the other vanadium hopefuls as 'classic pump and dumps' or is this comment TNO specific?
Lets look at the charts of 9 vanadium plays since late July and guess which one is TNO.
AEE, AVL, KRR, PUR, SBR, SRN, TMT, TNG, TNO
Hint it's the one you can 'see now the fall'.
View attachment 1409931TNG has best performed and closest to construction, in this time announced news regarding debt funding that looks very positive.
AEE next, IMO likely to do with it's uranium asset and the uranium price/speculation rather than the vanadium.
The rest are 40-69% down, so yeah, looks like TNO is a classic P&D lol (coming in 4th of 9). If you want to go off highs/lows in the past 12 months, then surely KRC/KRR should be top of your P&D hit list?
Other than the spike after the acquisition, I think other contributing factors you have omitted involved the acquisition transaction taking much longer than expected (couple of months longer) at least partially due to the mining right being granted (which takes years to get in South Africa) and then drilling also taking longer than anticipated to mobilise following this. Both of these factors occurred when vanadium was very hot, this never got the 'pump' that others got. The timing here didn't work out compared to how the sector reacted.
At current EV (allowing for every piece of dilution) TNO is valued a little higher than AVL. I feel TNO is one of the very few explorers that will make it to production considering the results recently released, with plenty more due in coming weeks with a scoping study to follow, should have a good idea if this is any more feasible than the rest then. Especially considering the AVL PFS, which I feel leaves it (and by association TMT) in a very weak position (short term).
I expect vanadium prices to rebound in coming months and TNO to be one of the few vanadium explorers that rebounds with it (assuming results continue to be as expected).
