Australia 23 million people or $61 revenue per person 0.13% of income spent on coke Indonesia 263 million people or $1.75 revenue per person. 0.03% of income spent on coke Growth rates aren't great at the moment but they are double Australia so Indonesia is still moving up the world rankings. As they move up the rankings they get more disposable income and a greater share of their income moves to disposable activities such as purchasing coke. Lets approximate that growth is 3% more than Australia over the next ten years. This means Indonesia will outgrow Australia by a meager 3%, making Indo outgrow Aust by 34% over ten years but, if they start spending a larger part of their income on coke products over up coming years then we might see an increase from 0.03% to 0.06% of income spent in Indonesia over the next ten years, I suspect they will spend more as their disposable income increases with time. That would mean in ten years ccl is making double what it does now and 50% of its income would be from Indonesia.
This still doesn't change the fact that ccl.ax is going to make less money next year than this year and while I talk about a period of ten years, most of you talk about periods of 6 months so a little reality check. They are going to have a decrease in earning over the next year. Given this, at the current price you are paying 17.5 x next years earnings for a company that is experiencing negative growth... Negative growth.. you can pay 4.5 x earnings to experience some negative growth with nwh. It's the shrinking Australia market that is causing them problems. Not the positives elsewhere.
CCL Price at posting:
$12.23 Sentiment: LT Buy Disclosure: Held