I think that AstraZeneca could be another alternate bidder for VLA, aside from BMS. It recently secured FDA approval for the use of Imfinzi (anti-PD-L1 checkpoint inhibitor) in Stage III NSCLC, which is apparently worth $1B in annual sales. Merck seems to be most interested in the Cavatak/Keytruda combo in NSCLC, especially as around 55% of Keytruda (& BMS's Optivo) sales are in the lung cancer indication. As there are early results showing that Cavatak upregulates the expression of PD-L1 in NSCLC tumours, there may be sufficient evidence for AZ to make a bid to potentially make Imfinzi more effective via a combo & protect it's new position in NSCLC.
I also think that the BMS M&A team is going to be heavily tied up with it's Nektar deal for the next few months (which would explain Merck's timing) & would be late to the party with a bid, if at all.
In my opinion, Malcolm McColl & the board have done a great job of squeezing as much as possible from Merck, & now it's up to the market to determine if this is the right value via any potential competitive bids. I'm also disappointed at the value but I'll be voting in favour of the deal as the immunotherapy field is becoming way too complex to fully understand and I couldn't handle years more of snail-paced trials & a perpetually declining share price.
Just my opinion.
VLA Price at posting:
$1.69 Sentiment: Hold Disclosure: Held
